SYLVAIN CHARLEBOIS: Is Ottawa aware the world is on the brink of a food shortage? – Saltwire

Food supply chain hangovers due to the pandemic and the global impact of the invasion of Ukraine have enticed many to question the global nature of our food systems.

Some are suggesting we need to deglobalize and refocus our energy into making most economies around the world food sovereign, including Canada.

Given what the world is about to face this year, with millions experiencing acute hunger, its hard to argue against such a claim. But global trade over the years, especially for Canada, has been nothing short of a godsend, and brushing any of it to the side would be to our detriment.

First off, we should be clear on one fundamental reality. The world is still all about the United States and China. Everyone else adjusts along the way, including Canada.

A total of 35 per cent of Chinas exports go to the United States. China is also Americas number 1 customer, trade-wise.

Canada, in the grand scheme of things, matters very little.

About 15 per cent of all calories on Earth come from wheat. Corn covers a lot of calorific ground as well. With Ukraine out, coupled with sanctions against Russia, the global wheat deficit this year will be a significant challenge given that 25 per cent of grain exports come from that region.

We are going to be short on wheat, corn, barley and many other commodities. By the time we are done with 2022, it is likely that more than 100 million additional people will experience either famine or acute hunger, something the world has never seen.

The entire planet operates under a 90-day production cycle of agricultural commodities. Canadas contribution occurs obviously in the fall, along with the U.S. and parts of Europe.

With Bidens recent ethanol mandate, almost 40 per cent of the U.S. corn crop is used for ethanol, not food. In Canada, its about 10 per cent. The food-for-fuel obsession is back, despite the looming crisis.

Canada will be fine for food access, but food will get more expensive. Poor nations will always lose access to their food supply first while richer nations will secure food supplies by paying more. Poor countries have no capacity to store calories at all.

Germany, typically a big buyer of Ukrainian commodities, stated retail food prices could increase by as much as 50 per cent this year. Commodity traders are buying and even hoarding what they can get to secure supplies for the next several months.

China is basically the only nation that could bridge the calorie gap many nations will face. Its significance cannot be underscored enough.

Among the challenges we are facing, fertilizer access is certainly one. These critical inputs for farmers are on average about US$1,500 a ton, five times what it was 12 months ago.

Farmers need fertilizers to produce crops, but the market is controlled by a handful of greedy multinationals that supply-manage their products to artificially boost prices. Some of them are in Canada. This needs to stop.

We are also paying for years of genetic engineering bashing in the media by groups that have used fear to put forward an organic-centric diet for affluent city dwellers. Additionally, groups have recklessly lobbied city councils and provincial governments to ban the use of chemicals.

Agriculture is and will always be about technologies, and fanatics will have to accept that.

Many are talking about deglobalizing our food economy. Deglobalization occurs when the economic interdependence between nations declines. For Canada, this would be a problem.

Canada is one of the largest countries in the world, with fewer than 39 million people. Deglobalization essentially means for Canadians a reduction in our standard of living. Almost 60 per cent of our wealth comes from trades. Trades make our food more diverse and affordable, but this doesnt mean our approach to trades doesnt need fixing.

High-functioning food systems are not immune to destructive forces like climate change and a global pandemic. Tyrants like Putin can only make matters worse.

A globalization 2.0 agenda will require not only getting nations to adhere to acceptable humanitarian conduct to participate in a global economy, they also need to make sure farmers are not held hostage by powerful companies controlling the fertilizer industry.

Canada will need to make agriculture more productive by way of a solid food autonomy strategy. The only province that has one is Quebec.

Canada needs a pathway to produce more food in an open economy, offering better access and affordable prices while growing agriculture through trades in a sustainable manner. A comprehensive strategy would include sustainable water practices and the use of renewable energy to support production.

If we do things right, in a few decades we could end up supplying water-scarce California with food, and not the other way around.

Bold thinking requires an audacious strategy. Canada can do better as we have so much to offer.

Global trades have worked for the betterment of the world and continue to do so. But attaining more resiliency will continue to be a work in progress.

Sylvain Charlebois is professor in food distribution and policy, and senior director of the AgriFood Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.

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SYLVAIN CHARLEBOIS: Is Ottawa aware the world is on the brink of a food shortage? - Saltwire