Harvard professor says global coronavirus pandemic ‘likely,’ infecting 40-70% of world this year – The Hill

Harvard epidemiologistMarcLipsitchtold The Wall Street Journalthat "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.

"What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can't give a good number," addedLipsitch, who is theDirector of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Two other experts have recently given similar estimates.

Ira Longini, a biostatistician and adviser to the World Health Organization, has predicted that two-thirds of the global populationmay eventually contract COVID-19.

Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result inan "attack rate" that wouldaffect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has already saidthat it is preparing for the coronavirus to have a greater impact in the U.S. than the 15 confirmed cases currently.

In an interview withCNNon Feb. 13,Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said,Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode. He addedthat this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDCs National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, recentlyconfirmedthat the CDC is taking steps to prepare for the coronavirus to take a foothold in the U.S.

Along with communicating with health care facilities and resources, Messonnier says that the CDC is in constant talks with the medical supplies manufacturers, distributors and other health care partners to ensure there are plenty of preventative devices like masks and gloves available in the U.S. in the event of a larger outbreak.

Some of these partners have reported higher demand for N95 face masks and respirators.

She also took the time to explain the CDCs recommended use of any preventative supplies, especially face masks. Because the virus isnt spreading through the communityin the U.S., Messonnier only advises using face masks if you are sick or under investigation and not hospitalized, before one enters a health care providers office, or when caring for a potential infected patient.

When alone and at home, however, Messonnier says that people do not need to wear a mask.

She also confirmed that 195 people from Wuhan have completed the 14 day quarantine and left the March Air Reserve Base to be self-monitored with the help of state and local health authorities.

Additionally, amid reports of poor treatment of quarantined individuals and the military staff tending to them, Messonnier stated that the individuals discharged pose no health threat to their surrounding communities or the community they will return to.

After the CDC confirmed that a lab error led to the accidental discharge of an infected patient from a San Diego hospital, Messionnier told reporters that the CDC and other health officials are adding additional quality controls to keep patients organized.

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Harvard professor says global coronavirus pandemic 'likely,' infecting 40-70% of world this year - The Hill